The National Hurricane Center announces that Hurricane Joaquin has gained strength, becoming an “extremely dangerous” Category 4 storm. Peak windspeeds in the storm reached 130 mph, as of 2 PM.
Hurricane Joaquin is the first major Hurricane of the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season. The storm is forecast to remain in a favorable environment for another 12-24 hours, and until then additional intensification is possible.
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Joaquin is currently moving to the SW at 6 mph but is expected to make a more WNW turn and speed up later Thursday. At that point, in a less favorable environment, the storm is expected to weaken slowly.
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Forecast models are still not in agreement on the track of Joaquin from days 3 to 5, but the last few updates have nudged the storm a little further east. Within the next 24-36 hours, Joaquin will be moving into a less favorable environment with more shear and cooler ocean temperatures. Joaquin should weaken from that point forward, decreasing to a category 2 by early Sunday.
The computer models have been shifting more to the east, and many of them keep Joaquin offshore through Tuesday. However, a landfall in the eastern US is still not out of the question. Better agreement in the computer models later tonight should provide a more definitive location.
